Texas commercial real estate in Q2 2026 is more transactable than it's been since early 2022. Cap rates have largely reset, the bid-ask spread that paralyzed 2023 has narrowed, and deal volume across most asset classes is up year-over-year. The cycle isn't over — but the worst of the dislocation appears to be behind us.
What's different in 2026 compared to the run-up of 2018-2021: the cheap-money lift is gone. Returns now come from operational alpha, asset selection, and disciplined underwriting — not from cap-rate compression. The buyers who win in this cycle look different from the buyers who won in the last one.
This outlook walks through where Texas CRE capital is actually deploying right now — by asset class, by buyer type, by submarket — and CRECO's high-conviction calls for owners and investors planning their 2026-27 deployment. It's the same view we share with our institutional and private investor relationships on quarterly outlook calls.
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What you'll walk away with:
- Current cap rate ranges across industrial, retail, office, multifamily, and land
- Where capital is genuinely deploying vs where the market is talking but not transacting
- 1031 buyer behavior and the supply / demand imbalance for replacement properties
- High-conviction calls by asset class — what we'd buy, hold, and sell in 2026
- Texas-specific demographic and economic context that should inform a 5-10 year underwriting view
What's inside
- The macro setup for Texas CRE in 2026
- Cross-asset cap rate landscape — Q2 2026
- Who's actually buying in 2026
- 1031 demand and replacement-property supply
- High-conviction calls by asset class
- The mistakes we see investors making in 2026